Urban Water Innovation Systems – Thrust A Series: A2-2 Projecting Future Environmental Change

A2-2: Modeling the Metropolis: Projecting Future Environmental Change in Urban Areas
Matei Georgescu, Associate Professor – Arizona State University

The twin forcing agents of large-scale climate change and urban induced climate change pose significant challenges for urban dwellers. Given continued urbanization, both in the United States and across the globe, considerable research attention has been devoted to better characterize the potential impacts of a range of solutions aimed at improving livability within our cities, principally through lowering of near-surface temperatures. We utilize advanced climate modeling tools to examine climatic effects resulting from future projections of urbanization (both changes in extent and densification).

To assess potential adaption and mitigation impacts, we conduct additional simulations via incorporation of practical technologies whose focus is dedicated at reducing urban temperatures. In addition, we quantify potential non-linear interactions owing to the aforementioned twin forcing agents through simulations that include changes in greenhouse gas concentration that are consistent with a range of socioeconomic pathways. The ongoing work described here is an initial step toward a comprehensive assessment of climatic impacts – owing to both urban infrastructure and greenhouse gas concentration changes – on urban environments.

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