Strategies for impact modeling in a changing climate: the case of urban flooding


CMCC Webinar
March 24, 2022 – h. 12:30 – 01:30 pm CET

Speaker: Roberta Padulano, CMCC Foundation
Moderator: Monia Santini, CMCC Foundation

Impact modelling in a changing climate can be represented as a twofold process made up of two components, the first involving the modelling of the effects of climate change on the climate variables relevant for the impact, and, secondly, the impact modelling itself. Albeit both components are characterized by scientifically debated conceptualizations, assumptions and parameterizations, the modelling of impacts, such as urban flooding, is usually a matter of resources (data, codes, computational means, personal skills), since many acknowledged modelling tools, codes and software exist. Conversely, modelling climate change in a way that is suitable for impact analysis is far from being a solved matter, since, for instance, climate projections are continuously updated in terms of resolutions, parametrizations, accounted dynamics.
Keeping this in mind, different approaches and strategies can be envisaged for impact modelling in a climate change context. In this webinar, using urban flooding as a case study, two main approaches are shown that can be referred to as “top-down” vs. “bottom-up”, where the labels highlight the position of climate change modelling with respect to flood modelling (upstream or downstream, respectively). For both approaches, advantages, drawbacks, potentialities and limitations will be investigated and examples will be provided focusing on the City of Naples (Italy).
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