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The ORF Foreign Policy Survey 2022: India @75 and the World
2 November 2022
HARSH V. PANT
PREMESHA SAHA
ADITYA GOWDARA SHIVAMURTHY
ANTARA GHOSAL SINGH
SHASHANK MATTOO
RENITA D’SOUZA
Foreign Policy Survey 2022, India @75, Urban Indian, COVID-19 pandemic, Quad, BIMSTEC, G20, SCO, US-China tensions, economies, Russia-Ukraine conflict, political
Attribution:
Harsh V Pant, et al., The ORF Foreign Policy Survey 2022: India @75 and the World, November 2022, Observer Research Foundation.
Executive Summary
Urban Indian youth rated the country’s foreign policy positively: 25 percent graded it very good, and 52 percent, good. This is an increase from the 2021 survey report where 32 percent said it was very good, and 40 percent rated it good.
The respondents named Russia as India’s most reliable partner since Independence (43 percent); the United States followed with 27 percent.
Of India’s most pressing security challenges, 90 percent of respondents were concerned about the economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Other challenges were terrorism (named by 86 percent of respondents); border conflicts with China (84 percent); and territorial disputes with Pakistan (82 percent). In the 2021 survey, the top concerns were similar: pandemics like COVID-19; terrorism; border conflicts with China; and Pakistan.
Non-traditional security threats are of great concern to India’s youth: 84 percent named climate change as the challenge of most concern; and 83 percent were concerned about cybersecurity issues. The 2021 survey results were similar: climate change (83 percent) and cybersecurity (82 percent).
One-third of respondents (34 percent) chose multilateralism as their preferred mode for India’s engagement with other countries, over minilateralism and bilateralism.
Ninety-one percent of respondents said India’s bid for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council was an important foreign policy goal. In 2021 too, the same share of respondents agreed with the notion.
Twenty-six percent ranked the grouping of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa) as the most beneficial forum for India’s global goals. Of other forums listed in the survey (i.e., Quad, BIMSTEC, G20, and SCO), the SCO got the lowest rank at 6 percent.
The respondents said India’s priorities at the G20 and other multilateral forums should include climate finance and adaptation; healthcare preparedness; and global food security.
Nearly 80 percent agreed that Indian foreign policy has adequately defined what constitutes the country’s ‘neighbourhood’. The respondents expressed trust for the country’s immediate neighbours, except for Pakistan and Afghanistan. In 2021, respondents said they trusted the country’s immediate neighbours except for Pakistan.
India’s urban youth believed that the country’s bilateral relationships with its neighbours have strengthened, except with Pakistan and Afghanistan. In the 2021 survey, Pakistan was the only South Asian country that the respondents perceived negatively.
More than one-fourth of respondents (28 percent) expressed strong support for India’s diplomatic efforts following the August 2021 US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power.
India’s youth are of the view that it is the United States (US) that will most likely be the country’s leading partner in the next 10 years (more than 85 percent of the respondents); 76 percent said it will be Russia. In 2021, 78 percent named the US; and 57 percent, Russia.
When asked about India’s position should US-China tensions escalate, 49 percent believed India should be neutral. In the 2021 survey, 62 percent said India should side with the US.
Eighty-three percent of respondents agreed that US support is extremely important for India to rise as a global power in the 21st A little more than seven of every 10 respondents (71 percent) agreed that China poses a challenge to India’s rise.
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